CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-08-04T13:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-04T13:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47949/-1
CME Note: Arrival characterized by an initial increase in B_total from 4.77nT to 7.99nT, increasing to a peak B_total 19.08nT by 2026-08-08T07:51Z. B_z persists northward at the start of the signature, but sustains southward starting after 2026-08-08T08:27Z and has reached a peak southward B_z -17.93nT at 2026-08-08T11:43Z. Speed rises from ~295 km/s to ~360 km/s by 2026-08-08T09:41Z. Temperature and density increase slowly as well with speed. CME visible to the NE in STEREO A COR2 and the NW in GOES CCOR-1. Not visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real-time due to a data gap. The source is likely an eruption from approximately N25W30 with dimming, moving field lines, and post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUV 195 starting around 2026-08-04T12:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-08-08T05:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-08T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47957/1
Model Inputs:
2026-08-04T13:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=34.0, Lat.=40.0, Speed=487.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2026-08-04T20:24Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-08-08T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-06T22:36Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-09T08:00Z
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-05T16:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-07T14:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 84.07 hour(s)
Difference: -4.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-08-04T17:50Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy